Sweden’s Ambitious Renewables Goals

This year, much of the climate policy world’s focus has been watching countries submit their emissions reduction pledges. Decarbonisation of the global energy supply is one of the primary steps needed to mitigate climate change, and it’s high on the agenda at the climate change talks in Paris.

Known as INDCs or Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs), these country pledges have been brought to the table at the COP21 climate change negotiations. Outside of the INDC submission process, however, a number of countries and sub-state actors have also announced ambitious climate change goals this year. For now, we highlight one such goal – Sweden’s effort to become fossil free by 2030.

In Sweden, the Minister for Strategic Development and Nordic Cooperation, Kristina Persson, has announced a 100 per cent renewable energy goal – or förnybart – across all sectors. If adopted, it would be the first such goal to completely decarbonise a country’s energy supply.

Kristina Persson, Sweden’s Minister for Strategic Development and Nordic Cooperation

The baseline from which Sweden starts is already considerably beyond what many other comparable countries have achieved. The Swedish Government says 52 per cent of the country’s primary energy consumption comes from renewable sources.

This figure is largely attributed to the high share of non-fossil fuel energy in Sweden’s electricity generation – 78 per cent of which currently comes from a combination of nuclear and hydropower, with an additional 4 per cent from wind power. Like other countries in Scandinavia, wood biomass is a significant energy stock as well, accounting for approximately 10 per cent of electricity generation.

Sweden’s transition to renewable energy began decades ago. Similar to other OECD countries, the oil crisis of the early 1970s precipitated a change in energy policy in Sweden away from imported oil. While other countries chose to incentivise domestic fossil fuel production, Sweden focussed on renewable sources, with great success in the electricity and home heating sector.

In 1991, Sweden implemented one of the world’s first carbon taxes, priced at US$150 per metric ton of CO2, although it does not provide complete coverage of the electricity and industrial sectors.

Building on this strong and decades-in-the-making start, it appears likely that a fossil free Sweden will be powered by a continuing trend of nuclear, hydropower, biofuel, solar and wind (with wind prioritised in the energy mix).

Government action to support the pledge includes US$546 million in the 2016 financial year budget to foster renewable energy research. Other key financial contributions from the Swedish government include US$6.91 million on electricity grid research and US$115 million on building renovations.

It is interesting to view this pledge of a fossil-free Sweden by 2030, in line with last year’s pledge of a fossil-free Stockholm by 2050. Stockholm’s pledge operates independently of the national target, and we can look to its announced actions for clues as to what some elements of the national plan might be.

Some of the key actions listed in Stockholm’s plan include fossil-free district heating, creation of zones where only biofuel or electric vehicles are allowed, an assumption that existing building stock can be made 30 per cent more energy efficient, and broad policies to increase public transit.

Considering the gaps yet to be addressed for Stockholm’s 2050 fossil-free pledge, the national initiative to achieve a 100 per cent renewable Sweden twenty years earlier seems especially ambitious. Specific policies have yet to be announced outside of financial contributions, and key questions remain on whether the rate of technology deployment can match the ratcheting-up of ambition.

Although investment in renewable energy research portfolios is laudable, the government actions announced to date fall short of a 100 per cent renewable energy Sweden by 2030. Many questions remain, including whether the fossil free push includes energy transformation in high greenhouse gas emitting industries, such as the steel industry.

These are concerns which will need to be addressed before Sweden can achieve its formidable förnybart future. Nonetheless, given Sweden’s historic success in building a low-carbon energy mix, the latest round of announcements by Sweden and some of its major cities in establishing target dates for carbon neutrality is an encouraging example of increased ambition at all levels of government.