2012: A Year for Reflection and Redemption on the Environment

In the last twelve months we broke records, eclipsed human capabilities, and exceeded numbers previously unthinkable. In turn, we experienced new weather extremes, witnessed unforeseen tragedies take thousands of lives and felt the escalating costs of adapting to a hostile environment.

2011 saw us again push the boundaries of the environment, resulting in what The Guardian’s John Vidal has called an “ecologically tumultuous year”. Record greenhouse gas emissions, a nuclear meltdown, rapid arctic sea ice melts, and another year of rising temperatures in 2011 have made the apocalyptic prophecies of 2012 look increasingly believable.

But there are signs of hope on the horizon. Despite the concerning trends on greenhouse gas emissions and resource constraints, 2012 presents the world, and particularly Australia, with opportunities for reflection and redemption in our relations with the environment.

In June, world leaders, under the banner of the United Nations, will gather in Rio de Janeiro for the “Rio+20” conference on sustainable development. The event will mark twenty years since the first landmark environmental summit in the same city. It is a golden opportunity for focussed energies on the environment; and a sobering moment for reflection on the limited progress of the past twenty years.

The force with which the UN climate change conference in Durban ended last month, with a roadmap to a globally binding treaty on greenhouse emissions by 2020, is not guaranteed to carry over to Rio. As commentators from environmental NGOs to The Economist have predicted, world leaders are likely to be distracted by the immediate concerns of the global economy. In other words, we may see another sad year whereby the economy and the environment are treated by political leaders as distinctly separate issues.

Yet the reflection at the summit may well prove its salience. The last twenty years have seen UN bodies, conventions, treaties and institutions all set up to save us from ecological collapse, with limited success. Now in the face of ever more certain scientific evidence, world leaders cannot afford to delay to action on climate change, resource use, biodiversity, forests and water scarcity yet again. The overwhelming problems we face may well be enough to spur significant action on improving the global environment at Rio.

If not, business leaders in 2012 will continue to see past ill-informed electorates and their representatives and be the catalysts for change. Last year saw the highest investments in renewable technology ever, and in 2012 this may well be led by the private sector, which has the most to lose, and the most to gain, from the environmental crises we face. Expect markets to be the leaders in innovating and adapting to environmental crises. Prepare for investment in low carbon companies and technologies to soar.

In 2011 the global market in emissions expanded beyond most predictions. A new game changing Pacific Rim of carbon trading is emerging, with commerce centres from Sydney to Beijing to Tokyo becoming carbon trading hubs. Already California and Tokyo, each with populations and economies comparable toAustralia, have carbon trading schemes. New Zealand’s emissions trading scheme will remain in its transition period until end of 2012. Now with some Chinese provinces piloting carbon trading schemes and China indicating it will pilot a national scheme before 2015, East Asia and the Pacific Rim in 2012 may well overtake Europe as the centre of carbon markets.

This will be aided by the Australian price on carbon, coming into effect on July 1^st. Expect the vitriolic hyperbole in the national debate to cool soon afterwards, as households find themselves better off through a combination of tax cuts and payments as their pockets are lined with carbon compensation. The real significance lies in the middle power of Asia adopting a national scheme to combat carbon emissions, a powerful signal for the rest of the region and an innovative move to give Australian industries a green edge in the regional markets.

Finally, both Time magazine and the forestry advocacy website Mongabay.com have highlighted the “ Protester” as the story of 2011. Don’t expect the protestors to rest in 2012. Last year we saw huge demonstrations against environmentally destructive policies, from Bolivia to Burma to Britain. The United States saw incredible civil disobedience campaigns against the controversial Keystone pipeline, which would bring carbon-intensive tar sand oils from Canada to a global market. The Keystone actions resulted in over 1,000 people arrested in a two week long action, and the campaign going viral and inspiring millions across the globe. All these cases ended in victory for the demonstrators. However the battles are unlikely to cease in 2012, only now the force and momentum is on the other side: grassroots movements, hereunto unheard causes, and drivers of social and political change—this will be the space to watch in 2012. These may well be the influencers which bring about the required momentum needed to avoid catastrophe.

Already in 2012 the inclusion of aviation in the European emissions trading scheme, including flights from and to Europe by foreign carriers, has come into effect. Without the utter collapse of the airline industry, it must also be noted. So while doomsayers on both sides will highlight 2012 apocalyptic, the truth as always lies somewhere in between. Yes, the environmental situation in 2012 is dire, with all indicators on climate risk pointing towards catastrophe. Yes, the year will feature its fair share of weather related tragedies. And yes, increases in consumption and populations will place an ever greater strain on resources and prices. But the year provides some hope. No more can world leaders delay, and Rio will provide the perfect opportunity for reflection. The opportunities for cities, corporations and individuals in the changing, greening market will rapidly grow and mature. It will become increasingly difficult for nations to avoid the economic benefits of becoming environmentally aware. Carbon markets will grow, and the arrival of the carbon tax in Australia will provide no less than an economic hiccup of the GST a decade ago. And the voices of the people, the voices demanding immediate and effective action on protecting and improving the environment, will grow louder and louder. For the environment, 2012 will be the year of reflection, redemption and resilience in the face of adversary.